Consumer Economics Publications

Press Release on Food Inflation Expectations for 2016 and Beyond

Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy1

Recently there has been another wave of media reports on the impacts of the drought and the potential increases in food prices. In January BFAP projected that year-on-year inflation of the staple food basket would reach 29%. These projections seem to be in line with the last increases that are reported by Statistics South Africa. The impacts are already apparent in retail products derived from maize, with super maize meal increasing 22% year on year in January 2016. There are typically three levels or thresholds with a drought that determine the impact and length of the recovery period and consequently the impact on food prices. The three thresholds can be summarized as follows: Download the full article here.