NEWS & WORK


Find BFAP’s most recent research, baselines and publications here. Subscribe to our newsletter at the bottom of the page to receive our news and work directly.

BFAP Baseline 2018

Agricultural Outlook 2018 -2027

THE 2018 EDITION of the BFAP South African Baseline presents an outlook of agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade in South Africa for the period 2018 to 2027, within the context of the current uncertainty regarding land reform policies…

Food Inflation in South Africa – 2018 Q4

October 26, 2018

BFAP explores key factors expected to shape South Africa’s food inflation over the next 3 months and the cost of healthy eating. Read more.

An Overview of a Breeding and Technology Levy Collection System for SA

October 23, 2018

Investment into seed research is vital for a sustainable and competitive agricultural sector. In this context, this overview looks at the importance of a breeding and technology levy for wheat, barley and soybeans in South Africa.  View the summary  report here

Perspectives on Q2 GDP release

September 5, 2018

One of the key sectors that contributed to the second successive quarterly decline was agriculture. Download this one-pager to read more about the factors influencing agriculture’s performance.

BFAP Baseline Discussion on Morning Live

August 28, 2018

Dr. Tracy Davids gives and overview of the 10 year outlook for the South African agricultural sector  – Watch the interview.  

Food Inflation in South Africa

August 23, 2018

With rapid exchange rate depreciation and an uncertain political climate in South Africa, BFAP explores food price trends over the next three months. Read more

Urgent Land Audit Needed to Fight Inequality

August 17, 2018

The Business Day reports on the BFAP baseline launch and the importance of good data to inform policy in South Africa. Read More

Africa’s Evolving Food Systems


This paper sketches four plausible future scenarios for African food systems and discusses how policy choices will influence which of these scenarios is manifested in the next decades.

Modelling the Economic Impact of Climate Change on the South African Maize Industry


The aim of this report is to compile from the wealth of literature available, a comprehensive overview of the definitions and causes of climate change, incorporate the results of climate models into the BFAP sector model, and simulate the possible economic impacts of climate change on the South African maize industry.

Bio-ethanol Production in South Africa


High oil prices and uncertainties regarding future reserves as well as the phenomenon of global warming have led to countries considering alternative means of energy generation.

Small Scale Farmers Brief


Small scale farmer settlement and development is one of the key priorities in the National Department of Agriculture’s (DoA) Strategic Plan. A number of challenges related to the establishment and development of small farmers are, however, present. Amongst others, these challenges include a lack of access to land, financial services, mentorship programs and markets.

Climate Change Adaptation


THE LONG-TERM ADAPTATION SCENARIOS FLAGSHIP RESEARCH PROGRAMME (LTAS) FOR SOUTH AFRICA. The LTAS (April 2012 – June 2014) aims to respond to the South African National Climate Change Response White Paper (2011) by undertaking climate change adaptation research and scenario planning for South Africa and the Southern African sub-region.

Farm-worker Sectoral Determination: An Analysis of Agricultural Wages in South Africa 2015


A new Sectoral Determination for the agricultural sector is due in 2016. The introduction of a minimum wage in the sector in 2003 and an increase in the minimum wage in excess of 50% in 2013 have had a substantial impact on the sector.

Evaluating the Competitiveness of South African Pork Production within the Global Context


Modern agriculture has been exposed to an increasingly globalised society. Access to the global market has provided consumers with access to a wider range of products, at competitive prices. For the agricultural producer, competitiveness within the global context has become paramount, as increasing trade globally increases the level of competition faced by domestic producers.

Land Reform in the Free State


The establishment of an “integrated and inclusive rural economy” has been identified by the National Planning Commission (NPC) as one of the key goals for achieving their vision 2030.

Trade Flow Patterns of Maize in South Africa


Before the maize market was liberalized, trade in South Africa was relatively simple. Under controlled marketing, maize prices were set by the Maize Board at levels that were in many years significantly higher than export parity levels.

Implications of the National Water Resource Strategy


On 11 November 2011, the National Development Plan 2030 of the National Planning Commission was released. The overall target is to reduce the number of households living below R448 per month per person from 39% to zero by 2030.

The South African Sunflower Complex


The objective of this study was to evaluate and analyse the South African sunflower value chain in order to assess the overall state of the industry. The study maps out the sunflower seed, sunflower oil and oil cake value chain, displaying the linkages between the various components within the South African oil seed industry.

Adding Value in the South African Maize Value Chain


Maize is the most important grain crop in South Africa, being both the major feed grain for the animal feed industry and the staple food for the majority of the South African population.

The Profitability and Competitiveness of the Barley Industry


Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) production in South Africa is restricted to specific areas in the Northern and Southern Cape as well as the North West Province.

The Balance of Natural Resources


In the most recent State of the Nation Addresses (SONA, 2015a; 2015b) the President referred to a Nine Point Plan to revitalise the South African economy. Matters that took centre stage included agriculture in its role of promoting growth and food security and being one of the platforms through which increased equity can be achieved.

Understanding the Factors That Have Impacted on Cane Production


This report constitutes the phase one report, shedding light on the factors that have impacted on cane production in the South African sugar industry. Cane production has decreased significantly since 2000/01 driven by both a decrease in area under cane and cane yield. A 51% or just over 47 000 hectare decline in small-scale grower area under cane was the main driver of area decrease.

Evaluating the South African Pork Value Chain


Following a period of extremely high feed costs, combined with stagnant producer prices for pork over the past few years, South African pork producers have found their profit margins under increasing pressure.

The Impact of Coal Mining on Agriculture


South Africa has only 1.5% high potential arable soils (soils best suited for cash crop production).

Hester Vermeulen on RSG – Praat Saam


Hester Vermeulen particpates in a talk on the affordability of healthy eating in South Africa. Listen here.

Small Scale Broiler Production in SA


It is agreed that agriculture provides avenues for impoverished households to produce and trade their way out of poverty. However, this requires market access and value chain integration of small-scale farmers.

The Potential Impact of the National Minimum Wage on the Agricultural Sector


The South African government is pursuing the dual goal of ensuring maximum employment and wages. The relevance of these goals cannot be disputed but they are often in conflict and hence a fine balance has to be struck between ensuring that workers receive a decent wage whilst ensuring the long term financial sustainability of agribusinesses, investment and ensuring a conducive environment for maximum employment.

Listeriosis and Marginalised Consumers

May 17, 2018

More than two months have passed since the World Health Organisation confirmed that the listeriosis outbreak in SA was the biggest globally, and consumers in the country were cautioned about the dangers of consuming contaminated products…

The Impact of Western Cape Drought on Agriculture

March 28, 2018

Louw Pienaar was interviewed by the SABC regarding the drought policy brief, recently published by the Western Cape Department of Agriculture and BFAP.

Economic Impact of the 2017 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreak in South Africa


The recent outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in South Africa had a notable effect on the poultry industry – one of South Africa’s largest agricultural subsectors.

Why are Agricultural Projections Necessary?

November 21, 2017

In an Afrikaans interview, Prof Ferdi Meyer explains the pivotal role that projections on agricultural prices, production, consumption and trade have on businesses and policy decisions.

Do South African Consumers Have an Appetite for an Origin-based Certification System for Meat Products? A Synthesis of Studies on Perceptions, Preferences and Experiments


The introduction of protected designation of origin (PDO) type certification schemes in countries outside Europe is a recent phenomenon as the philosophy of origin based foods obtains global traction.

Press Release on Food Inflation Expectations for 2016 and Beyond

August 10, 2017

Recently there has been another wave of media reports on the impacts of the drought and the potential increases in food prices. In January BFAP projected that year-on-year inflation of the staple food basket would reach 29%.

Evaluating the Competitiveness of the South African Broiler Value Chain


The South African poultry industry is an important subsector within South African agriculture. It is the single largest contributor to total gross agricultural production value and has significant up and downstream multiplier effects through its long, integrated value chain.

Impact of trade controls on price transmission between southern African maize markets


Maize is an important staple crop in southern Africa that has often been prioritised from a policy perspective, particularly in the imposition of export controls under periods of perceived uncertainty…

BFAP Baseline 2017


The 2017 edition of the BFAP South African Baseline presents an outlook of agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade in South Africa for the period 2017 to 2026 and relates these to the agricultural sector’s footprint, and hence contribution, in the South African economy.

Broiler Production in South Africa: Is There Space for Smallholders in the Commercial Chicken Coup?


It is agreed that agriculture provides avenues for impoverished households to produce and trade their way out of poverty. However, this requires market access and value chain integration of small-scale farmers. This paper explores the possibilities for integration of small-scale farmers into the mainstream commercial broiler value chain in South Africa.

Vertical Price Transmission in South African Food Chains


This study uses vertical price transmission analysis, with time series econometric techniques, to determine how underlying commodity prices manifest in final retail prices and the associated reasons for it. Implications for food inflation are also reflected on.

Vooruitsigte vir die komende seisoene


Die droogte en relatief hoë temparature van 2016 het tot gevolg gehad dat verskeie komoditeitspryse relatief hoë vlakke gerealiseer het, veral die van aartappels en mielies wat beide rekortpryse behaal het.

Measuring the Competitive Performance of the South African Stone Fruit Industry


The aim of the study is to enquire about the global competitive performance of the South African stone fruit industry for the period 1961 – 2012.

Price Formation and Competitiveness of the South African Broiler Industry in the Global Context


In light of its recent classification by the Department of Trade and Industry as an industry in distress, this paper undertakes a comprehensive evaluation of the competitiveness of South African broiler production in the global context.

Meat Demand Elasticities in South Africa


The study aims to improve understanding of meat demand in South Africa through the estimation of a Linear Approximation of an Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS) for the South African meat complex which includes beef, mutton, pork, and poultry.

Competitiveness of Local Grain and Oilseeds Industries on the Global Market


Globalisation is becoming more of a reality, not only in the industrial sector, but also closer to home in the agricultural industry. It can be seen in the consolidation of input suppliers and the effect of international prices on local ones.

Palm Oil


New findings in health research are a primary driver in the change of nutritional content of composite foods, cooking methods, and nutrient additions.

Press release on Food Inflation Expectations for 2016 and beyond.

February 13, 2017

Recently there has been another wave of media reports on the impacts of the drought and the potential increases in food prices. In January BFAP projected2 that year-­‐on-­‐year inflation of the staple food basket would reach 29%. These projections seem to be in line with the last increases that are reported by Statistics South Africa. The impacts are already apparent in retail products derived from maize, with super maize meal increasing 22% year on year in January 2016.

Agri Leaders


Humanity faces some tough challenges in the 21st century. By 2050, we’ll reach ‘peak population’ with more than 9 billion people. That’s a quarter more mouths to feed with ever scarcer resources. We’ll be much older on average, which means that ageing nations in the Americas, Asia and Europe will become increasingly reliant on a shrinking proportion of young workers. And three out of four people will live in cities, a massive demographic shift that
will force governments to create more efficient and affordable solutions for the
delivery of clean water, sanitation and other essential services.

Kan Insetinflasie Toekomstige Finansiële Marges onder Druk Sit?


Dit is alombekend dat ’n kosteknyptang-effek in die landbousektor teenwoordig is wat impliseer dat produkpryse oor tyd stadiger styg as die pryse van landbou-insette.

The Benefits of Using Certified, Virus-tested, True-to-type Plant Material


The benefits to the primary fruit producers of establishing orchards and vineyards of certified, virus-tested, true-to-type plant material are not well understood. This article summarises the results of a research project which assessed the lifetime economic and non-economic benefits for fresh stone and pome fruit orchards, table and raisin grape vineyards, as well as canning peach orchards in South Africa (Midgley and Vermeulen, 2015; Midgley et al., 2015 and 2016).

Fruit Journal


Agriculture and food face dynamic, complex and interconnected risks that potentially threaten the supply of raw materials and the reputation of brands. NSF’s Responsible Sourcing services assist clients in addressing food security and brand reputation risks by building sustainable, resilient, secure supply chains as well as by demonstrating environmental and socially responsible sourcing practices.

Genetically Modified Maize


Genetically modified (GM) crop technologies have made great strides since its first introduction in 1996. Although there is an extensive and growing body of literature on the economic impact of the adoption of GM crops in both developing and developed economies, there is only scant evidence that the technology has had any specific and distinguishable impact among female and male farmers. In economies where female farmers and female household members have a significant and often differentiated role in agriculture production, it is crucial to be able to answer this question.

Competitiveness of South African Broiler Production


Poultry is a critical subsector within South African agriculture, as the single largest contributor to gross agricultural production value. Its contribution is further amplified through substantial up- and downstream multiplier effects associated with a long, integrated value chain. In 2015, 40% of total animal feed consumption in South Africa was attributed to broiler production (AFMA, 2016).

BFAP Baseline 2016


The 2016 edition of the BFAP Baseline presents an outlook of agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade in South Africa for the period 2016 to 2025 and relates these to potential actions aimed at increasing the agricultural sector’s contribution to economic growth.

Watter Veranderings Kan die Volgende Tien Jaar in die Aartappelbedryf Plaasvind?


Vir elke landboubedryf bestaan daar ‘n reeks kerndrywers of fundamentele faktore wat die rigting van ‘n bedryf kan
bepaal. Daar kan ook ‘n onderskeid getref word tussen drywers wat ‘n bedryf oor die korttermyn beïnvloed en die meer langtermyn strategiese drywers.

Policy brief on the 2015/2016 drought


This report evaluates the impact of the 2015/2016 drought on the South African economy, on commercial and smallholder producers, and on consumers. Download.

Wat Hou die Volgende Dekade vir die Aartappelbedryf in?


Vir elke landboubedryf bestaan daar ‘n reeks van kerndrywers, of anders gestel fundamentele faktore, wat die rigting van ‘n bedryf kan bepaal. Daar kan ook ‘n onderskeid getref word tussen drywers wat ‘n bedryf oor die korttermyn beïnvloed en die meer langtermyn strategiese drywers.

BFAP Baseline 2015


The 2015 edition of the BFAP Baseline presents an outlook of agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade
in South Africa for the period 2015 to 2024 and relates these results to policy and decision making in a turbulent
macro-economic environment.

BFAP Baseline 2014


THE 2014 EDITION of the BFAP Baseline is set within a turbulent macroeconomic environment. South Africa’s economic growth slowed to the lowest level in almost 5 years in 2013 and following continued labour unrest, particularly in the mining sector, the first quarter of 2014 marked a contraction of the economy for the first time since 2009.

The Impact of Increasing Fuel, Labour and Electricity Expenditure on the Sustainability of Agriculture


Recent months have seen significant upward pressure in input costs in the potato industry. Some of these costs are considered as being administrative costs.

Die Relatiewe Winsgewendheid van Aartapples met Spesifieke Verwysing na die Oos-Vrystaat


Vir ‘n geruime tyd al ontwikkel die Buro vir Voedsel en Landboubeleid(BFAP) toekomsprojeksies verskeie bedrywe in Suid-Afrikaanse land-bou.

Agri Benchmark


Farmers across the world are annually faced with new challenges from a production, input and market perspective. Uncertain weather conditions caused some major shifts in supply patterns.

The Agri Benchmark Initiative: International and Local Potato Production


Due to changes in price relations of arable crops, the profitability of crops has been shifting throughout the world. Crop rotations and cropping systems are being put to the test!

BFAP Baseline 2012


THE BFAP BASELINE 2012 presents an outlook of Southern African agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade for the period 2012 to 2021. This outlook is based on assumptions about a range of economic, technological, environmental, political, institutional, and social factors. The outlook is generated by the BFAP sector model, which is an econometric, recursive, partial equilibrium model.

Die Impak van Mieliepryse op Aartappelaanplantings


Verlede jaar het twee artikels in CHIPS verskyn om moontlike scenarios random aanplantings en markpryse vir 2011 te skets. Die BFAP aartappel bedryfsmodel het die scenarios gesimuleer.

‘n Basislyn vir die Suid-Afrikaanse Aartappelbedryf


Die simulasie model wat deur die Buro vir Voedsel en Landboubeleid (BFAP) in samewerking met Aartapples Suid-Afrika vir die Suid-Afrikaanse aartapplebedryf ontwikkel is.