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Final Baseline 2019
THE 2018 EDITION of the BFAP South African Baseline presents an outlook of agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade in South Africa for the period 2018 to 2027, within the context of the current uncertainty regarding land reform policies…
March 11, 2021
The national economy saw a record annual decline of -7%, the biggest contraction since at least 1946. By contrast, the agriculture sector realised an annual real GDP growth of 13.1%, which was the only sector, apart from government services, that saw any expansion. Click here to read more
December 9, 2020
South Africa’s seasonally adjusted and annualised GDP increased by 66.1% in the third quarter of 2020, owing to the easing of Covid-19 restrictions. Although this represents a major recovery, following a 51.7% decline in quarter 2, overall growth for the first 3 quarters of 2020 remains subdued with a -7.9% contraction compared to the first […]
BFAP has undertaken a study, funded by the Oilseeds Advisory Committee (OAC) to provide a deeper understanding of the key drivers affecting sunflower seed quality, the impact of varying (lower) oil content on the industry, and potential interventions to achieve an upgraded state of the value chain. Download the Full Report.
September 9, 2020
The agricultural sector was the lone shining light – the only positive contributor to GDP with an increase of 15.1% from quarter 1 to quarter 2 of 2020 and a contribution of 0.3 percentage points to the overall GDP. Read this one-pager for more details around which subsectors contributed to this growth. Download here
July 8, 2020
StatsSA reports that South Africa’s GDP contracted by 2% in the first quarter of 2020 relative to the fourth quarter of 2019 while the Agricultural GDP grew by 27.8% and contributed 0.5 percentage points to the overall GDP. Download the publication here.
March 5, 2020
BFAP calculates that agricultural GDP contracted by 2.1% in Q4 2019 when compared to Q4 2018. Read this one-pager for some more details and context behind this contraction. Download Here
February 24, 2020
Food inflation for January 2020 was recorded at 3.7%. For more on what we expect for the rest of the quarter read here.
This study provides an update of the initial 2012 study and further focuses on the trade competitiveness challenges that the industry is facing and the impact of inconsistent tariff applications. The key indicators for industry growth and continuation include: Trade, tariffs and competitiveness Market development and consistency of supply Price discovery Yields Download the report […]
December 5, 2019
BFAP estimates that agriculture contracted by 8.9% on a year-on-year basis. Read this one-pager for some more details and context behind this contraction. Download Here.
October 25, 2019
Benign food inflation, as experienced in early 2019, seems to gaining momentum on the back of higher commodity prices and a weaker exchange rate. These factors are also expected to support inflationary trends going into the new year. Read more.
This piece documents discussions on recent trends on mechanization in Africa held at a workshop session on agro-industrial transformation as a driver for employment generation, food security and rural development in Africa which took place at the 6th African Conference of Agricultural Economists in Abuja, Nigeria in September 2019. Read more.
BFAP researchers in collaboration with various colleagues recently published a chapter in AGRA’s Africa Agricultural Status Report 2019, entitled “Avoid Hitting the Wall by Leveraging Investments of Midstream Heroes in African Food Value Chains.” This chapter leverages market analyses and value chain work that BFAP has been doing for many years on the African continent. Read […]
September 16, 2019
BFAP provides context for Agriculture’s contribution to GDP in Quarter 2, 2019. Read more.
September 2, 2019
From irrigated orchards to arid pasture areas, the costs and profits for each hectare of farming land vary wildly; The Business Day published an informative piece: Read more
June 5, 2019
Read more on agriculture’s contribution to the first quarter economic growth figures released recently
May 27, 2019
This report covers recent trends and a food inflation outlook over the next three months. Read report.
April 3, 2019
Read our latest press release on the competitiveness of the South African broiler industry here.
March 25, 2019
This report benchmarks the efficiency of South-African broiler producers. It considers terms technical efficiency and production cost in SA relative to other leading producers globally. Read more here.
February 25, 2019
To produce relevant insights, BFAP needs to process increasingly large datasets, “Big Data”, to inform decision-making. Marion discusses BFAP’s aim with the Data Science division with Grootplaas, click here to listen to the interview.
February 22, 2019
BFAP explores key factors expected to shape South Africa’s food inflation over the next 3 months and the cost of healthy eating. Read More.
February 4, 2019
In light of the preliminary area estimates published by the Crop Estimates Committee on 29 January 2019, Prof. Ferdi Meyer discusses impacts on the 2019 harvest year. Click Here to listen to the interview.
December 18, 2018
A reality check regarding current-season rainfall and expectations for the 2019 maize crop. Read more.
December 6, 2018
BFAP calculates that agricultural GDP grew by 1.2% in Q3 2018 when compared to Q3 2017. Download this one-pager unpacking various sub-sector performances.
October 26, 2018
BFAP explores key factors expected to shape South Africa’s food inflation over the next 3 months and the cost of healthy eating. Read more.
October 23, 2018
Investment into seed research is vital for a sustainable and competitive agricultural sector. In this context, this overview looks at the importance of a breeding and technology levy for wheat, barley and soybeans in South Africa. View the summary report here
September 5, 2018
One of the key sectors that contributed to the second successive quarterly decline was agriculture. Download this one-pager to read more about the factors influencing agriculture’s performance.
August 28, 2018
Dr. Tracy Davids gives and overview of the 10 year outlook for the South African agricultural sector – Watch the interview.
August 23, 2018
With rapid exchange rate depreciation and an uncertain political climate in South Africa, BFAP explores food price trends over the next three months. Read more
August 17, 2018
The Business Day reports on the BFAP baseline launch and the importance of good data to inform policy in South Africa. Read More
This paper sketches four plausible future scenarios for African food systems and discusses how policy choices will influence which of these scenarios is manifested in the next decades.
The aim of this report is to compile from the wealth of literature available, a comprehensive overview of the definitions and causes of climate change, incorporate the results of climate models into the BFAP sector model, and simulate the possible economic impacts of climate change on the South African maize industry.
High oil prices and uncertainties regarding future reserves as well as the phenomenon of global warming have led to countries considering alternative means of energy generation.
Small scale farmer settlement and development is one of the key priorities in the National Department of Agriculture’s (DoA) Strategic Plan. A number of challenges related to the establishment and development of small farmers are, however, present. Amongst others, these challenges include a lack of access to land, financial services, mentorship programs and markets.
THE LONG-TERM ADAPTATION SCENARIOS FLAGSHIP RESEARCH PROGRAMME (LTAS) FOR SOUTH AFRICA. The LTAS (April 2012 – June 2014) aims to respond to the South African National Climate Change Response White Paper (2011) by undertaking climate change adaptation research and scenario planning for South Africa and the Southern African sub-region.
A new Sectoral Determination for the agricultural sector is due in 2016. The introduction of a minimum wage in the sector in 2003 and an increase in the minimum wage in excess of 50% in 2013 have had a substantial impact on the sector.
Modern agriculture has been exposed to an increasingly globalised society. Access to the global market has provided consumers with access to a wider range of products, at competitive prices. For the agricultural producer, competitiveness within the global context has become paramount, as increasing trade globally increases the level of competition faced by domestic producers.
The establishment of an “integrated and inclusive rural economy” has been identified by the National Planning Commission (NPC) as one of the key goals for achieving their vision 2030.
Before the maize market was liberalized, trade in South Africa was relatively simple. Under controlled marketing, maize prices were set by the Maize Board at levels that were in many years significantly higher than export parity levels.
On 11 November 2011, the National Development Plan 2030 of the National Planning Commission was released. The overall target is to reduce the number of households living below R448 per month per person from 39% to zero by 2030.
The objective of this study was to evaluate and analyse the South African sunflower value chain in order to assess the overall state of the industry. The study maps out the sunflower seed, sunflower oil and oil cake value chain, displaying the linkages between the various components within the South African oil seed industry.
Maize is the most important grain crop in South Africa, being both the major feed grain for the animal feed industry and the staple food for the majority of the South African population.
Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) production in South Africa is restricted to specific areas in the Northern and Southern Cape as well as the North West Province.
In the most recent State of the Nation Addresses (SONA, 2015a; 2015b) the President referred to a Nine Point Plan to revitalise the South African economy. Matters that took centre stage included agriculture in its role of promoting growth and food security and being one of the platforms through which increased equity can be achieved.
This report constitutes the phase one report, shedding light on the factors that have impacted on cane production in the South African sugar industry. Cane production has decreased significantly since 2000/01 driven by both a decrease in area under cane and cane yield. A 51% or just over 47 000 hectare decline in small-scale grower area under cane was the main driver of area decrease.
Following a period of extremely high feed costs, combined with stagnant producer prices for pork over the past few years, South African pork producers have found their profit margins under increasing pressure.
South Africa has only 1.5% high potential arable soils (soils best suited for cash crop production).
Hester Vermeulen particpates in a talk on the affordability of healthy eating in South Africa. Listen here.
It is agreed that agriculture provides avenues for impoverished households to produce and trade their way out of poverty. However, this requires market access and value chain integration of small-scale farmers.
The South African government is pursuing the dual goal of ensuring maximum employment and wages. The relevance of these goals cannot be disputed but they are often in conflict and hence a fine balance has to be struck between ensuring that workers receive a decent wage whilst ensuring the long term financial sustainability of agribusinesses, investment and ensuring a conducive environment for maximum employment.
May 17, 2018
More than two months have passed since the World Health Organisation confirmed that the listeriosis outbreak in SA was the biggest globally, and consumers in the country were cautioned about the dangers of consuming contaminated products…
March 28, 2018
Louw Pienaar was interviewed by the SABC regarding the drought policy brief, recently published by the Western Cape Department of Agriculture and BFAP.
The recent outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in South Africa had a notable effect on the poultry industry – one of South Africa’s largest agricultural subsectors.
November 21, 2017
In an Afrikaans interview, Prof Ferdi Meyer explains the pivotal role that projections on agricultural prices, production, consumption and trade have on businesses and policy decisions.
The introduction of protected designation of origin (PDO) type certification schemes in countries outside Europe is a recent phenomenon as the philosophy of origin based foods obtains global traction.
August 10, 2017
Recently there has been another wave of media reports on the impacts of the drought and the potential increases in food prices. In January BFAP projected that year-on-year inflation of the staple food basket would reach 29%.
The South African poultry industry is an important subsector within South African agriculture. It is the single largest contributor to total gross agricultural production value and has significant up and downstream multiplier effects through its long, integrated value chain.
Maize is an important staple crop in southern Africa that has often been prioritised from a policy perspective, particularly in the imposition of export controls under periods of perceived uncertainty…
The 2017 edition of the BFAP South African Baseline presents an outlook of agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade in South Africa for the period 2017 to 2026 and relates these to the agricultural sector’s footprint, and hence contribution, in the South African economy.
It is agreed that agriculture provides avenues for impoverished households to produce and trade their way out of poverty. However, this requires market access and value chain integration of small-scale farmers. This paper explores the possibilities for integration of small-scale farmers into the mainstream commercial broiler value chain in South Africa.
This study uses vertical price transmission analysis, with time series econometric techniques, to determine how underlying commodity prices manifest in final retail prices and the associated reasons for it. Implications for food inflation are also reflected on.
Die droogte en relatief hoë temparature van 2016 het tot gevolg gehad dat verskeie komoditeitspryse relatief hoë vlakke gerealiseer het, veral die van aartappels en mielies wat beide rekortpryse behaal het.
The aim of the study is to enquire about the global competitive performance of the South African stone fruit industry for the period 1961 – 2012.
In light of its recent classification by the Department of Trade and Industry as an industry in distress, this paper undertakes a comprehensive evaluation of the competitiveness of South African broiler production in the global context.
The study aims to improve understanding of meat demand in South Africa through the estimation of a Linear Approximation of an Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS) for the South African meat complex which includes beef, mutton, pork, and poultry.
Globalisation is becoming more of a reality, not only in the industrial sector, but also closer to home in the agricultural industry. It can be seen in the consolidation of input suppliers and the effect of international prices on local ones.
New findings in health research are a primary driver in the change of nutritional content of composite foods, cooking methods, and nutrient additions.
February 13, 2017
Recently there has been another wave of media reports on the impacts of the drought and the potential increases in food prices. In January BFAP projected2 that year-‐on-‐year inflation of the staple food basket would reach 29%. These projections seem to be in line with the last increases that are reported by Statistics South Africa. The impacts are already apparent in retail products derived from maize, with super maize meal increasing 22% year on year in January 2016.
Humanity faces some tough challenges in the 21st century. By 2050, we’ll reach ‘peak population’ with more than 9 billion people. That’s a quarter more mouths to feed with ever scarcer resources. We’ll be much older on average, which means that ageing nations in the Americas, Asia and Europe will become increasingly reliant on a shrinking proportion of young workers. And three out of four people will live in cities, a massive demographic shift that
will force governments to create more efficient and affordable solutions for the
delivery of clean water, sanitation and other essential services.
Dit is alombekend dat ’n kosteknyptang-effek in die landbousektor teenwoordig is wat impliseer dat produkpryse oor tyd stadiger styg as die pryse van landbou-insette.
The benefits to the primary fruit producers of establishing orchards and vineyards of certified, virus-tested, true-to-type plant material are not well understood. This article summarises the results of a research project which assessed the lifetime economic and non-economic benefits for fresh stone and pome fruit orchards, table and raisin grape vineyards, as well as canning peach orchards in South Africa (Midgley and Vermeulen, 2015; Midgley et al., 2015 and 2016).
Agriculture and food face dynamic, complex and interconnected risks that potentially threaten the supply of raw materials and the reputation of brands. NSF’s Responsible Sourcing services assist clients in addressing food security and brand reputation risks by building sustainable, resilient, secure supply chains as well as by demonstrating environmental and socially responsible sourcing practices.
Genetically modified (GM) crop technologies have made great strides since its first introduction in 1996. Although there is an extensive and growing body of literature on the economic impact of the adoption of GM crops in both developing and developed economies, there is only scant evidence that the technology has had any specific and distinguishable impact among female and male farmers. In economies where female farmers and female household members have a significant and often differentiated role in agriculture production, it is crucial to be able to answer this question.
Poultry is a critical subsector within South African agriculture, as the single largest contributor to gross agricultural production value. Its contribution is further amplified through substantial up- and downstream multiplier effects associated with a long, integrated value chain. In 2015, 40% of total animal feed consumption in South Africa was attributed to broiler production (AFMA, 2016).
The 2016 edition of the BFAP Baseline presents an outlook of agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade in South Africa for the period 2016 to 2025 and relates these to potential actions aimed at increasing the agricultural sector’s contribution to economic growth.
Vir elke landboubedryf bestaan daar ‘n reeks kerndrywers of fundamentele faktore wat die rigting van ‘n bedryf kan
bepaal. Daar kan ook ‘n onderskeid getref word tussen drywers wat ‘n bedryf oor die korttermyn beïnvloed en die meer langtermyn strategiese drywers.
This report evaluates the impact of the 2015/2016 drought on the South African economy, on commercial and smallholder producers, and on consumers. Download.
Vir elke landboubedryf bestaan daar ‘n reeks van kerndrywers, of anders gestel fundamentele faktore, wat die rigting van ‘n bedryf kan bepaal. Daar kan ook ‘n onderskeid getref word tussen drywers wat ‘n bedryf oor die korttermyn beïnvloed en die meer langtermyn strategiese drywers.
The 2015 edition of the BFAP Baseline presents an outlook of agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade
in South Africa for the period 2015 to 2024 and relates these results to policy and decision making in a turbulent
macro-economic environment.
THE 2014 EDITION of the BFAP Baseline is set within a turbulent macroeconomic environment. South Africa’s economic growth slowed to the lowest level in almost 5 years in 2013 and following continued labour unrest, particularly in the mining sector, the first quarter of 2014 marked a contraction of the economy for the first time since 2009.
Recent months have seen significant upward pressure in input costs in the potato industry. Some of these costs are considered as being administrative costs.
Vir ‘n geruime tyd al ontwikkel die Buro vir Voedsel en Landboubeleid(BFAP) toekomsprojeksies verskeie bedrywe in Suid-Afrikaanse land-bou.
Farmers across the world are annually faced with new challenges from a production, input and market perspective. Uncertain weather conditions caused some major shifts in supply patterns.
Due to changes in price relations of arable crops, the profitability of crops has been shifting throughout the world. Crop rotations and cropping systems are being put to the test!
THE BFAP BASELINE 2012 presents an outlook of Southern African agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade for the period 2012 to 2021. This outlook is based on assumptions about a range of economic, technological, environmental, political, institutional, and social factors. The outlook is generated by the BFAP sector model, which is an econometric, recursive, partial equilibrium model.
Verlede jaar het twee artikels in CHIPS verskyn om moontlike scenarios random aanplantings en markpryse vir 2011 te skets. Die BFAP aartappel bedryfsmodel het die scenarios gesimuleer.
Die simulasie model wat deur die Buro vir Voedsel en Landboubeleid (BFAP) in samewerking met Aartapples Suid-Afrika vir die Suid-Afrikaanse aartapplebedryf ontwikkel is.