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BFAP Baseline 2019

  Final Baseline 2019

BFAP Baseline 2018

Agricultural Outlook 2018 -2027

THE 2018 EDITION of the BFAP South African Baseline presents an outlook of agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade in South Africa for the period 2018 to 2027, within the context of the current uncertainty regarding land reform policies…

Perspectives on Agriculture’s GDP performance in 2020

March 11, 2021

The national economy saw a record annual decline of -7%, the biggest contraction since at least 1946. By contrast, the agriculture sector realised an annual real GDP growth of 13.1%, which was the only sector, apart from government services, that saw any expansion. Click here to read more

Perspectives on Agriculture’s GDP performance in Q3 2020

December 9, 2020

South Africa’s seasonally adjusted and annualised GDP increased by 66.1% in the third quarter of 2020, owing to the easing of Covid-19 restrictions. Although this represents a major recovery, following a 51.7% decline in quarter 2, overall growth for the first 3 quarters of 2020 remains subdued with a -7.9% contraction compared to the first […]

BFAP Baseline 2020

Final Baseline 2020

Sunflower Quality Report

BFAP has undertaken a study, funded by the Oilseeds Advisory Committee (OAC) to provide a deeper understanding of the key drivers affecting sunflower seed quality, the impact of varying (lower) oil content on the industry, and potential interventions to achieve an upgraded state of the value chain. Download the Full Report.

Perspectives on Agriculture’s GDP performance in Q2 2020

September 9, 2020

The agricultural sector was the lone shining light – the only positive contributor to GDP with an increase of 15.1% from quarter 1 to quarter 2 of 2020 and a contribution of 0.3 percentage points to the overall GDP. Read this one-pager for more details around which subsectors contributed to this growth. Download here

Perspectives on Agriculture’s GDP performance in Q1 2020

July 8, 2020

StatsSA reports that South Africa’s GDP contracted by 2% in the first quarter of 2020 relative to the fourth quarter of 2019 while the Agricultural GDP grew by 27.8% and contributed 0.5 percentage points to the overall GDP. Download the publication here.

Perspectives on Agriculture’s GDP performance in Q4 2019

March 5, 2020

BFAP calculates that agricultural GDP contracted by 2.1% in Q4 2019 when compared to Q4 2018. Read this one-pager for some more details and context behind this contraction. Download Here

Food Inflation in 2020Q1 and beyond

February 24, 2020

Food inflation for January 2020 was recorded at 3.7%. For more on what we expect for the rest of the quarter read here.

The Groundnut Value Chain – Update 2019

This study provides an update of the initial 2012 study and further focuses on the trade competitiveness challenges that the industry is facing and the impact of inconsistent tariff applications. The key indicators for industry growth and continuation include: Trade, tariffs and competitiveness Market development and consistency of supply Price discovery Yields Download the report […]

Perspectives on agriculture’s performance in Q3 2019

December 5, 2019

BFAP estimates that agriculture contracted by 8.9% on a year-on-year basis. Read this one-pager for some more details and context behind this contraction. Download Here.

Food Inflation in 2019Q4 and beyond

October 25, 2019

Benign food inflation, as experienced in early 2019, seems to gaining momentum on the back of higher commodity prices and a weaker exchange rate. These factors are also expected to support inflationary trends going into the new year. Read more.

Reflections on Mechanization Trends in Africa

This piece documents discussions on recent trends on mechanization in Africa held at a workshop session on agro-industrial transformation as a driver for employment generation, food security and rural development in Africa which took place at the 6th African Conference of Agricultural Economists in Abuja, Nigeria in September 2019. Read more.

Africa Agricultural Status Report 2019

BFAP researchers in collaboration with various colleagues recently published a chapter in AGRA’s Africa Agricultural Status Report 2019, entitled “Avoid Hitting the Wall by Leveraging Investments of Midstream Heroes in African Food Value Chains.” This chapter leverages market analyses and value chain work that BFAP has been doing for many years on the African continent. Read […]

Perspectives on Agriculture’s contribution to 2019Q2 GDP

September 16, 2019

BFAP provides context for Agriculture’s contribution to GDP in Quarter 2, 2019. Read more.

Viable budgets for Land Reform

September 2, 2019

From irrigated orchards to arid pasture areas, the costs and profits for each hectare of farming land vary wildly; The Business Day published an informative piece: Read more

Perspectives on Agriculture’s contribution to 2019Q1 growth

June 5, 2019

  Read more on agriculture’s contribution to the first quarter economic growth figures released recently      

Food Inflation in 2019Q2 and 2019Q3

May 27, 2019

This report covers recent trends and a food inflation outlook over the next three months. Read report.

Press Release – 2017 Competitiveness Study

April 3, 2019

Read our latest press release on the competitiveness of the South African broiler industry here.

Competitiveness of the South African Broiler Industry

March 25, 2019

This report benchmarks the efficiency of  South-African broiler producers. It considers terms technical efficiency and production cost in SA relative to other leading producers globally. Read more here.  

Grootplaas interviews Mrs. Marion Delport regarding BFAP’s Data Science division

February 25, 2019

To produce relevant insights, BFAP needs to process increasingly large datasets, “Big Data”, to inform decision-making. Marion discusses BFAP’s aim with the Data Science division with Grootplaas, click here to listen to the interview.

Food Inflation Outlook- Feb 2019

February 22, 2019

BFAP explores key factors expected to shape South Africa’s food inflation over the next 3 months and the cost of healthy eating. Read More.

Grootplaas interviews Prof. Ferdi Meyer regarding 2019 harvest

February 4, 2019

In light of the preliminary area estimates published by the Crop Estimates Committee on 29 January 2019, Prof. Ferdi Meyer discusses impacts on the 2019 harvest year. Click Here to listen to the interview.

Staple maize price inflation potentially back at double figures in 2019

December 18, 2018

A reality check regarding current-season rainfall and expectations for the 2019 maize crop. Read more.

Perspectives on Q3 GDP release

December 6, 2018

BFAP calculates that agricultural GDP grew by 1.2% in Q3 2018 when compared to Q3 2017. Download this one-pager unpacking various sub-sector performances.

Food Inflation in South Africa – 2018 Q4

October 26, 2018

BFAP explores key factors expected to shape South Africa’s food inflation over the next 3 months and the cost of healthy eating. Read more.

An Overview of a Breeding and Technology Levy Collection System for SA

October 23, 2018

Investment into seed research is vital for a sustainable and competitive agricultural sector. In this context, this overview looks at the importance of a breeding and technology levy for wheat, barley and soybeans in South Africa.  View the summary  report here

Perspectives on Q2 GDP release

September 5, 2018

One of the key sectors that contributed to the second successive quarterly decline was agriculture. Download this one-pager to read more about the factors influencing agriculture’s performance.

BFAP Baseline Discussion on Morning Live

August 28, 2018

Dr. Tracy Davids gives and overview of the 10 year outlook for the South African agricultural sector  – Watch the interview.  

Food Inflation in South Africa

August 23, 2018

With rapid exchange rate depreciation and an uncertain political climate in South Africa, BFAP explores food price trends over the next three months. Read more

Urgent Land Audit Needed to Fight Inequality

August 17, 2018

The Business Day reports on the BFAP baseline launch and the importance of good data to inform policy in South Africa. Read More

Africa’s Evolving Food Systems

This paper sketches four plausible future scenarios for African food systems and discusses how policy choices will influence which of these scenarios is manifested in the next decades.

Modelling the Economic Impact of Climate Change on the South African Maize Industry

The aim of this report is to compile from the wealth of literature available, a comprehensive overview of the definitions and causes of climate change, incorporate the results of climate models into the BFAP sector model, and simulate the possible economic impacts of climate change on the South African maize industry.

Bio-ethanol Production in South Africa

High oil prices and uncertainties regarding future reserves as well as the phenomenon of global warming have led to countries considering alternative means of energy generation.

Small Scale Farmers Brief

Small scale farmer settlement and development is one of the key priorities in the National Department of Agriculture’s (DoA) Strategic Plan. A number of challenges related to the establishment and development of small farmers are, however, present. Amongst others, these challenges include a lack of access to land, financial services, mentorship programs and markets.

Climate Change Adaptation

THE LONG-TERM ADAPTATION SCENARIOS FLAGSHIP RESEARCH PROGRAMME (LTAS) FOR SOUTH AFRICA. The LTAS (April 2012 – June 2014) aims to respond to the South African National Climate Change Response White Paper (2011) by undertaking climate change adaptation research and scenario planning for South Africa and the Southern African sub-region.

Farm-worker Sectoral Determination: An Analysis of Agricultural Wages in South Africa 2015

A new Sectoral Determination for the agricultural sector is due in 2016. The introduction of a minimum wage in the sector in 2003 and an increase in the minimum wage in excess of 50% in 2013 have had a substantial impact on the sector.

Evaluating the Competitiveness of South African Pork Production within the Global Context

Modern agriculture has been exposed to an increasingly globalised society. Access to the global market has provided consumers with access to a wider range of products, at competitive prices. For the agricultural producer, competitiveness within the global context has become paramount, as increasing trade globally increases the level of competition faced by domestic producers.

Land Reform in the Free State

The establishment of an “integrated and inclusive rural economy” has been identified by the National Planning Commission (NPC) as one of the key goals for achieving their vision 2030.

Trade Flow Patterns of Maize in South Africa

Before the maize market was liberalized, trade in South Africa was relatively simple. Under controlled marketing, maize prices were set by the Maize Board at levels that were in many years significantly higher than export parity levels.

Implications of the National Water Resource Strategy

On 11 November 2011, the National Development Plan 2030 of the National Planning Commission was released. The overall target is to reduce the number of households living below R448 per month per person from 39% to zero by 2030.

The South African Sunflower Complex

The objective of this study was to evaluate and analyse the South African sunflower value chain in order to assess the overall state of the industry. The study maps out the sunflower seed, sunflower oil and oil cake value chain, displaying the linkages between the various components within the South African oil seed industry.

Adding Value in the South African Maize Value Chain

Maize is the most important grain crop in South Africa, being both the major feed grain for the animal feed industry and the staple food for the majority of the South African population.

The Profitability and Competitiveness of the Barley Industry

Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) production in South Africa is restricted to specific areas in the Northern and Southern Cape as well as the North West Province.

The Balance of Natural Resources

In the most recent State of the Nation Addresses (SONA, 2015a; 2015b) the President referred to a Nine Point Plan to revitalise the South African economy. Matters that took centre stage included agriculture in its role of promoting growth and food security and being one of the platforms through which increased equity can be achieved.

Understanding the Factors That Have Impacted on Cane Production

This report constitutes the phase one report, shedding light on the factors that have impacted on cane production in the South African sugar industry. Cane production has decreased significantly since 2000/01 driven by both a decrease in area under cane and cane yield. A 51% or just over 47 000 hectare decline in small-scale grower area under cane was the main driver of area decrease.

Evaluating the South African Pork Value Chain

Following a period of extremely high feed costs, combined with stagnant producer prices for pork over the past few years, South African pork producers have found their profit margins under increasing pressure.

The Impact of Coal Mining on Agriculture

South Africa has only 1.5% high potential arable soils (soils best suited for cash crop production).

Hester Vermeulen on RSG – Praat Saam

Hester Vermeulen particpates in a talk on the affordability of healthy eating in South Africa. Listen here.

Small Scale Broiler Production in SA

It is agreed that agriculture provides avenues for impoverished households to produce and trade their way out of poverty. However, this requires market access and value chain integration of small-scale farmers.

The Potential Impact of the National Minimum Wage on the Agricultural Sector

The South African government is pursuing the dual goal of ensuring maximum employment and wages. The relevance of these goals cannot be disputed but they are often in conflict and hence a fine balance has to be struck between ensuring that workers receive a decent wage whilst ensuring the long term financial sustainability of agribusinesses, investment and ensuring a conducive environment for maximum employment.

Listeriosis and Marginalised Consumers

May 17, 2018

More than two months have passed since the World Health Organisation confirmed that the listeriosis outbreak in SA was the biggest globally, and consumers in the country were cautioned about the dangers of consuming contaminated products…

The Impact of Western Cape Drought on Agriculture

March 28, 2018

Louw Pienaar was interviewed by the SABC regarding the drought policy brief, recently published by the Western Cape Department of Agriculture and BFAP.

Economic Impact of the 2017 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreak in South Africa

The recent outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in South Africa had a notable effect on the poultry industry – one of South Africa’s largest agricultural subsectors.

Why are Agricultural Projections Necessary?

November 21, 2017

In an Afrikaans interview, Prof Ferdi Meyer explains the pivotal role that projections on agricultural prices, production, consumption and trade have on businesses and policy decisions.

Do South African Consumers Have an Appetite for an Origin-based Certification System for Meat Products? A Synthesis of Studies on Perceptions, Preferences and Experiments

The introduction of protected designation of origin (PDO) type certification schemes in countries outside Europe is a recent phenomenon as the philosophy of origin based foods obtains global traction.

Press Release on Food Inflation Expectations for 2016 and Beyond

August 10, 2017

Recently there has been another wave of media reports on the impacts of the drought and the potential increases in food prices. In January BFAP projected that year-on-year inflation of the staple food basket would reach 29%.

Evaluating the Competitiveness of the South African Broiler Value Chain

The South African poultry industry is an important subsector within South African agriculture. It is the single largest contributor to total gross agricultural production value and has significant up and downstream multiplier effects through its long, integrated value chain.

Impact of trade controls on price transmission between southern African maize markets

Maize is an important staple crop in southern Africa that has often been prioritised from a policy perspective, particularly in the imposition of export controls under periods of perceived uncertainty…

BFAP Baseline 2017

The 2017 edition of the BFAP South African Baseline presents an outlook of agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade in South Africa for the period 2017 to 2026 and relates these to the agricultural sector’s footprint, and hence contribution, in the South African economy.

Broiler Production in South Africa: Is There Space for Smallholders in the Commercial Chicken Coup?

It is agreed that agriculture provides avenues for impoverished households to produce and trade their way out of poverty. However, this requires market access and value chain integration of small-scale farmers. This paper explores the possibilities for integration of small-scale farmers into the mainstream commercial broiler value chain in South Africa.

Vertical Price Transmission in South African Food Chains

This study uses vertical price transmission analysis, with time series econometric techniques, to determine how underlying commodity prices manifest in final retail prices and the associated reasons for it. Implications for food inflation are also reflected on.

Vooruitsigte vir die komende seisoene

Die droogte en relatief hoë temparature van 2016 het tot gevolg gehad dat verskeie komoditeitspryse relatief hoë vlakke gerealiseer het, veral die van aartappels en mielies wat beide rekortpryse behaal het.

Measuring the Competitive Performance of the South African Stone Fruit Industry

The aim of the study is to enquire about the global competitive performance of the South African stone fruit industry for the period 1961 – 2012.

Price Formation and Competitiveness of the South African Broiler Industry in the Global Context

In light of its recent classification by the Department of Trade and Industry as an industry in distress, this paper undertakes a comprehensive evaluation of the competitiveness of South African broiler production in the global context.

Meat Demand Elasticities in South Africa

The study aims to improve understanding of meat demand in South Africa through the estimation of a Linear Approximation of an Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS) for the South African meat complex which includes beef, mutton, pork, and poultry.

Competitiveness of Local Grain and Oilseeds Industries on the Global Market

Globalisation is becoming more of a reality, not only in the industrial sector, but also closer to home in the agricultural industry. It can be seen in the consolidation of input suppliers and the effect of international prices on local ones.

Palm Oil

New findings in health research are a primary driver in the change of nutritional content of composite foods, cooking methods, and nutrient additions.

Press release on Food Inflation Expectations for 2016 and beyond.

February 13, 2017

Recently there has been another wave of media reports on the impacts of the drought and the potential increases in food prices. In January BFAP projected2 that year-­‐on-­‐year inflation of the staple food basket would reach 29%. These projections seem to be in line with the last increases that are reported by Statistics South Africa. The impacts are already apparent in retail products derived from maize, with super maize meal increasing 22% year on year in January 2016.

Agri Leaders

Humanity faces some tough challenges in the 21st century. By 2050, we’ll reach ‘peak population’ with more than 9 billion people. That’s a quarter more mouths to feed with ever scarcer resources. We’ll be much older on average, which means that ageing nations in the Americas, Asia and Europe will become increasingly reliant on a shrinking proportion of young workers. And three out of four people will live in cities, a massive demographic shift that
will force governments to create more efficient and affordable solutions for the
delivery of clean water, sanitation and other essential services.

Kan Insetinflasie Toekomstige Finansiële Marges onder Druk Sit?

Dit is alombekend dat ’n kosteknyptang-effek in die landbousektor teenwoordig is wat impliseer dat produkpryse oor tyd stadiger styg as die pryse van landbou-insette.

The Benefits of Using Certified, Virus-tested, True-to-type Plant Material

The benefits to the primary fruit producers of establishing orchards and vineyards of certified, virus-tested, true-to-type plant material are not well understood. This article summarises the results of a research project which assessed the lifetime economic and non-economic benefits for fresh stone and pome fruit orchards, table and raisin grape vineyards, as well as canning peach orchards in South Africa (Midgley and Vermeulen, 2015; Midgley et al., 2015 and 2016).

Fruit Journal

Agriculture and food face dynamic, complex and interconnected risks that potentially threaten the supply of raw materials and the reputation of brands. NSF’s Responsible Sourcing services assist clients in addressing food security and brand reputation risks by building sustainable, resilient, secure supply chains as well as by demonstrating environmental and socially responsible sourcing practices.

Genetically Modified Maize

Genetically modified (GM) crop technologies have made great strides since its first introduction in 1996. Although there is an extensive and growing body of literature on the economic impact of the adoption of GM crops in both developing and developed economies, there is only scant evidence that the technology has had any specific and distinguishable impact among female and male farmers. In economies where female farmers and female household members have a significant and often differentiated role in agriculture production, it is crucial to be able to answer this question.

Competitiveness of South African Broiler Production

Poultry is a critical subsector within South African agriculture, as the single largest contributor to gross agricultural production value. Its contribution is further amplified through substantial up- and downstream multiplier effects associated with a long, integrated value chain. In 2015, 40% of total animal feed consumption in South Africa was attributed to broiler production (AFMA, 2016).

BFAP Baseline 2016

The 2016 edition of the BFAP Baseline presents an outlook of agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade in South Africa for the period 2016 to 2025 and relates these to potential actions aimed at increasing the agricultural sector’s contribution to economic growth.

Watter Veranderings Kan die Volgende Tien Jaar in die Aartappelbedryf Plaasvind?

Vir elke landboubedryf bestaan daar ‘n reeks kerndrywers of fundamentele faktore wat die rigting van ‘n bedryf kan
bepaal. Daar kan ook ‘n onderskeid getref word tussen drywers wat ‘n bedryf oor die korttermyn beïnvloed en die meer langtermyn strategiese drywers.

Policy brief on the 2015/2016 drought

This report evaluates the impact of the 2015/2016 drought on the South African economy, on commercial and smallholder producers, and on consumers. Download.

Wat Hou die Volgende Dekade vir die Aartappelbedryf in?

Vir elke landboubedryf bestaan daar ‘n reeks van kerndrywers, of anders gestel fundamentele faktore, wat die rigting van ‘n bedryf kan bepaal. Daar kan ook ‘n onderskeid getref word tussen drywers wat ‘n bedryf oor die korttermyn beïnvloed en die meer langtermyn strategiese drywers.

BFAP Baseline 2015

The 2015 edition of the BFAP Baseline presents an outlook of agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade
in South Africa for the period 2015 to 2024 and relates these results to policy and decision making in a turbulent
macro-economic environment.

BFAP Baseline 2014

THE 2014 EDITION of the BFAP Baseline is set within a turbulent macroeconomic environment. South Africa’s economic growth slowed to the lowest level in almost 5 years in 2013 and following continued labour unrest, particularly in the mining sector, the first quarter of 2014 marked a contraction of the economy for the first time since 2009.

The Impact of Increasing Fuel, Labour and Electricity Expenditure on the Sustainability of Agriculture

Recent months have seen significant upward pressure in input costs in the potato industry. Some of these costs are considered as being administrative costs.

Die Relatiewe Winsgewendheid van Aartapples met Spesifieke Verwysing na die Oos-Vrystaat

Vir ‘n geruime tyd al ontwikkel die Buro vir Voedsel en Landboubeleid(BFAP) toekomsprojeksies verskeie bedrywe in Suid-Afrikaanse land-bou.

Agri Benchmark

Farmers across the world are annually faced with new challenges from a production, input and market perspective. Uncertain weather conditions caused some major shifts in supply patterns.

The Agri Benchmark Initiative: International and Local Potato Production

Due to changes in price relations of arable crops, the profitability of crops has been shifting throughout the world. Crop rotations and cropping systems are being put to the test!

BFAP Baseline 2012

THE BFAP BASELINE 2012 presents an outlook of Southern African agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade for the period 2012 to 2021. This outlook is based on assumptions about a range of economic, technological, environmental, political, institutional, and social factors. The outlook is generated by the BFAP sector model, which is an econometric, recursive, partial equilibrium model.

Die Impak van Mieliepryse op Aartappelaanplantings

Verlede jaar het twee artikels in CHIPS verskyn om moontlike scenarios random aanplantings en markpryse vir 2011 te skets. Die BFAP aartappel bedryfsmodel het die scenarios gesimuleer.

‘n Basislyn vir die Suid-Afrikaanse Aartappelbedryf

Die simulasie model wat deur die Buro vir Voedsel en Landboubeleid (BFAP) in samewerking met Aartapples Suid-Afrika vir die Suid-Afrikaanse aartapplebedryf ontwikkel is.