Market intelligence – BFAP

Perspectives on Agriculture’s GDP performance in Q4 2023

Hester Vermeulen — Wed, 20 Mar 2024 12:54:54 +0000

The release of the country’s GDP results for the final quarter of 2023 brought several surprises, which we unpack in this Brief. For the total economy, GDP increased by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023. For the full year 2023, GDP expanded by 0.6% in real terms. The big surprise, however, was that agriculture contracted by 12.2%. While BFAP has long since projected a decline, we believe this contraction was more in the region of 3-5%.

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Perspectives on Agriculture’s GDP performance in Q3 2023

Kandas_BFAP — Wed, 13 Dec 2023 07:18:26 +0000

In the third quarter of 2023, South Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2023. The contribution of agriculture decreased by 9.6%. The biggest contributor to the agricultural sector performance in Q3 of 2023 was a 36% decline in the revenue of field crops. Download here to read the full …

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Agriculture sector performance versus the targets of the NDP

Kandas_BFAP — Sat, 07 Oct 2023 06:36:36 +0000

How has the agricultural sector performed against the development objectives and targets outlined in the National Development Plan (NDP)? The recently launched 2023 BFAP Baseline as well as data on land reform collected by the BER provide a sense of the exceptional performance of the sector. There are, however, threats on the horizon that could …

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Production Potential for Soybeans and Maize in the Eastern Cape

Kandas_BFAP — Thu, 07 Sep 2023 18:49:22 +0000

The Eastern Cape was mentioned in the National Development Plan as a region “with untapped potential” however, there are a number of factors that limit this potential. These include physical characteristics (soil depth and quality (pH, soil nutrients), topology and degradation) as well as land use/competition dynamics.

It was found, based on the area and yield assumptions detailed in the report, that the potential maize production can be estimated as 578 040 tonnes, off a total area of 212 000 hectares. That is a three-fold increase from the current production of 175 000 tonnes.

The potential soybean production is estimated as at least 9 720 tonnes (37% increase from current average soybean production) off a total area of 4 560 hectares, assuming the current 8% contribution to the crop mix. Soybean area could increase to a total of 56 690 hectares depending on the soybeans share of the total crop mix.

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Perspectives on Agriculture’s GDP performance in Q2 2023

Kandas_BFAP — Thu, 07 Sep 2023 18:15:25 +0000

In the second quarter of 2023, the agricultural sector grew by 4.2% quarter on quarter. It should be noted that this follows a decline of almost 5% in quarter 1, and a decline of almost 20% in quarter 2 of 2022 due to later than normal delivery of some summer crops, which bolstered growth in Q3 of 2022. This suggests that Q2 performance comprises some normalisation from these dynamics.

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Perspectives on AGRICULTURE’s PERFORMANCE in Q1 of 2023

Kandas_BFAP — Fri, 23 Jun 2023 09:46:54 +0000

South Africa’s seasonally adjusted quarter- on-quarter real GDP increased by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2023, but agricultural GDP contracted by 12.3%. This publication contextualises the latest release of GDP statistics by StatsSA and provides insights on the major factors behind agriculture’s contribution to GDP.

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Perspectives on AGRICULTURE’s PERFORMANCE in Q4 of 2022

Dalene — Wed, 15 Mar 2023 09:58:49 +0000

South Africa’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter real GDP dropped by 1.3% in the fourth quarter of 2022. This publication contextualises the latest release of GDP statistics by StatsSA and provides insights on the major factors behind agriculture’s contribution to GDP.

Download here to read the full article.

Perspectives on Agriculture’s GDP performance in Q2 2022

Dalene — Mon, 03 Oct 2022 08:00:20 +0000

In the second quarter of 2022, the agricultural sector contracted by 7.7% quarter on quarter and 20.9% year on year. This follows a slower summer crop harvest, and a sharp rise in input costs, which more than offset revenue gains.

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Perspectives on Agriculture’s GDP performance in Q1 2022

Dalene — Tue, 14 Jun 2022 10:21:41 +0000

YIn the first quarter of 2022, the agricultural sector grew by 0.8% quarter on quarter and 3.6% year on year. While high prices resulting from international market dynamics are supporting revenue, sharp cost increases are constraining profits.

For the full year 2022, BFAP expects positive growth in the sector, but the rate of growth is expected to slow drastically compared to the past 2 years – mostly as a result of spiralling costs and ongoing challenges in ports that are detrimental to export performance.

Find the brief here.

Perspectives on Agriculture’s GDP Performance in Q4 of 2021

Dalene — Fri, 11 Mar 2022 11:51:15 +0000

South Africa’s seasonally adjusted GDP grew by 1.2% in the last quarter of 2021. For the full year 2021, South Africa’s GDP increased by 4.9%, with agriculture, forestry and fisheries at 12.2%.

The agricultural industry expanded by 8.3%, with the growth in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 was driven mostly by an 11% rise in the gross production value from horticulture, followed by a 6% rise in the GPV of animal products. High animal protein prices and additional bulk wine, citrus and pome fruit exports driving agriculture’s GDP performance in Q4.

Find the brief here.