buy imitrex online

The most prominent quantitative tool used within the BFAP system at industry level is the BFAP sector model, which can be described as an econometric, recursive, partial equilibrium model of the South African agricultural sector. The BFAP sector model includes 52 commodities within the South African agricultural sector. For each commodity, the important components of supply and demand are identified and equilibrium is established in each market by means of balance sheet principles where demand equals supply. The model is solved within a closed system of equations, where grains are linked to livestock through feed and biofuels through policy mandates, implying that a shock to the livestock or biofuels sectors will be transmitted to grains and vice versa.

 

Cereals

Oilseeds

Livestock

& Dairy

Horticulture& Viticulture

Other

White Maize

Sunflowers

Chicken

Wine (x9 varieties)

Petrol

Yellow Maize

Sunflower oil

Beef

Table Grapes

Diesel

Wheat

Sunflower cake

Sheep meat

Apples

Biodiesel

Sorghum

Soya beans

Pork

Pears

Bioethanol

Barley

Soybean oil

Wool

Potatoes

Bioethanol gel

 

Soya cake

Eggs

Sugarcane

DDGS

 

Canola

Dairy – Milk

Sugar

Fertilizer

   

Dairy – Cheese

Oranges

Machinery

 

 

Dairy – Butter

Soft citrus

 

 

 

Dairy – WMP

Grapefruit

 

 

 

Dairy – SMP

Lemon

 

 

The BFAP sector model has been used to generate an annual baseline since 2004, representing a single possible future scenario for the South African agricultural sector. The sector model is linked to global sector model of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri. This link enables the transmission of trends in global commodity markets and prices to local markets. The latest edition of the BFAP sector model also includes a module that is linked to a partial equilibrium modelling framework that has been developed for a rage of African countries. 

Apart from generating the annual baseline, the BFAP sector model is used in conjunction with other tools to simulate specific scenarios and conduct impact analysis. Specific scenarios are compared to the baseline in order to establish the effect of exogenous shocks on the South African agricultural sector. Output from the BFAP sector model is linked to the farm level financial simulation model (FinSim), enabling the transmission of industry level simulations to farm level. Similarly, linking output from the BFAP sector model to a set of estimated labour multipliers enables simulation of the effects of specific scenarios on employment within various industries in the agricultural sector. Producer prices generated within the sector model are transmitted to retail level, enabling quantification of changes of food prices at consumer level. The sector level model is therefore centrally placed within the integrated BFAP modelling system and forms the starting point for quantitative analysis.